Yerevan, 31.May.2026,
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Fitch повысило прогноз мировых цен на золото и медь

ECONOMICS
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Международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch Ratings повысило прогнозы мировых цен на медь и золото в 2024 году, но снизило прогноз по ценам на никель и алюминий, следует из отчета агентства.

В частности, в 2024 году цена на золото прогнозируется на уровне $1,9 тыс. за тройскую унцию (ранее - $1,8 тыс.), в 2025 году - $1,8 тыс. за тройскую унцию (ранее - $1,6 тыс. за тройскую унцию), 2026 году - $1,6 тыс. за тройскую унцию (ранее - $1,5 тыс.). «Увеличение прогнозов по золоту на 2024-2026 годы отражает более высокую премию за геополитический риск из-за статуса металла как «убежища», - отмечает агентство.

Fitch также повысило прогноз спотовых цен на медь. В 2024 году они прогнозируются на уровне $8,4 тыс. за тонну (ранее - $8,3 тыс.). Прогноз цен на 2025-2026 годы остался на уровне $8 тыс. и $7,5 тыс. за тонну соответственно. «Увеличение прогноза по меди на 2024 год отражает перебои со стороны предложения и снижение прогнозов по производству со стороны производителей, что вместе с восстановлением спроса за пределами Китая приведет к рыночному дефициту», - поясняют аналитики. Уровень запасов остается очень низким, добавили в Fitch.

Также снижен прогноз по цене алюминия - до $2,3 тыс. за тонну в 2024 году (ранее - $2,35 тыс. за тонну). Прогноз по цене алюминия на 2025 год остался на уровне $2,4 тыс., на 2026 год - повышен до $2,3 тыс. с $2,2 тыс. «Небольшое снижение прогноза на алюминий в 2024 году отражает снижение цен с начала года, хотя мы ожидаем, что цены постепенно вырастут позже в этом году, чему будет способствовать восстановление спроса за пределами Китая», - отмечает Fitch.

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Timeline
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