Yerevan, 31.May.2026,
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Lavrov: Russia intends to outline concrete steps to resolve issues in Karabakh Armenia President signs decree on calling snap parliamentary elections on June 20 Armenia President petitions to Constitutional Court Armenia legislature convenes special session to consider new Electoral Code Latvia parliament recognizes Armenian Genocide 145 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed in Armenia Armenia acting Deputy PM receives Iran Ambassador Azerbaijanis advance in territory of Nor Ghazanchi village of Karabakh's Martakert again, negotiations underway Lebanon official to Armenians: You were killed by sword, we—by famine, blockade, but culprit is one Al-Arabia: 10,000 people parade with torches in Yerevan in memory of 1.5 million Armenians killed in Ottoman Turkey Greek PM expects to meet with Erdogan in the near future Armenia Ombudsman on protest held in front of Prosecutor General's Office


Stratfor: Усилия Армении по обеспечению сильной поддержки со стороны США будут сорваны: Трамп предпочтет Баку

ANALYSIS
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Южный Кавказ останется полем битвы за геополитическое влияние, поскольку Армения и Азербайджан будут искать иностранную поддержку для укрепления своих позиций в мирных переговорах, пишет Stratfor.

 Армения и Азербайджан, вероятно, продолжат движение к мирному соглашению, но разногласия по конституционным изменениям в Армении, деталям полной демаркации их границы и открытию транзитных связей, вероятно, заблокируют мирное соглашение в 2025 году. Некоторые из этих вопросов могут быть отложены для последующего соглашения, но пока не будет соглашения, возможность обострений в регионе сохранится, поскольку Баку использует свое военное преимущество для сохранения рычагов влияния на переговорах. Обе стороны будут искать иностранных покровителей, чтобы помочь им сохранить рычаги влияния на переговорах. Азербайджан и Армения будут избегать противодействия Москве, рассматривая сильное влияние России на возможное прекращение огня в Украине и пророссийское грузинское правительство как увеличение ресурсов Москвы для влияния на Южный Кавказ в ближайшие годы.

 Усилия Армении по обеспечению сильной поддержки со стороны Соединенных Штатов будут сорваны, поскольку администрация Трампа отдает приоритет прочным отношениям с Баку как региональному противовесу российскому, иранскому и китайскому региональному влиянию. Вместо этого Армения будет полагаться на военную технику из Франции и стремиться к росту торговли с Европейским союзом. Армения будет использовать эти растущие политические и оборонные связи с Западом, чтобы попытаться удержать Азербайджан от эскалации и противостоять самым сильным требованиям Баку в мирных переговорах, а именно относительно транзита через южную Армению.

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast

https://worldview.stratfor.com

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Timeline
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